The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change. / Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart; Becker, Ute; Bruun, Hans Henrik.

In: Ecography, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2015, p. 221-230.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Swab, RM, Regan, HM, Matthies, D, Becker, U & Bruun, HH 2015, 'The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change', Ecography, vol. 38, no. 3, pp. 221-230. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00585

APA

Swab, R. M., Regan, H. M., Matthies, D., Becker, U., & Bruun, H. H. (2015). The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change. Ecography, 38(3), 221-230. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00585

Vancouver

Swab RM, Regan HM, Matthies D, Becker U, Bruun HH. The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change. Ecography. 2015;38(3):221-230. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00585

Author

Swab, Rebecca Marie ; Regan, Helen M. ; Matthies, Diethart ; Becker, Ute ; Bruun, Hans Henrik. / The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change. In: Ecography. 2015 ; Vol. 38, No. 3. pp. 221-230.

Bibtex

@article{e5a2ede935624d33b9d99d69aa8e60e8,
title = "The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species{\textquoteright} projections under climate change",
abstract = "Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species{\textquoteright} responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species{\textquoteright} responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate “winner” overall, coupling it the model with a population model incorporating changes in demography and small-scale habitat suitability changes at smaller scales resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundances due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.",
keywords = "Faculty of Science, population dynamics, climate change, species distribution modelling",
author = "Swab, {Rebecca Marie} and Regan, {Helen M.} and Diethart Matthies and Ute Becker and Bruun, {Hans Henrik}",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1111/ecog.00585",
language = "English",
volume = "38",
pages = "221--230",
journal = "Ecography",
issn = "0906-7590",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

AU - Swab, Rebecca Marie

AU - Regan, Helen M.

AU - Matthies, Diethart

AU - Becker, Ute

AU - Bruun, Hans Henrik

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate “winner” overall, coupling it the model with a population model incorporating changes in demography and small-scale habitat suitability changes at smaller scales resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundances due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.

AB - Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate “winner” overall, coupling it the model with a population model incorporating changes in demography and small-scale habitat suitability changes at smaller scales resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundances due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.

KW - Faculty of Science

KW - population dynamics

KW - climate change

KW - species distribution modelling

U2 - 10.1111/ecog.00585

DO - 10.1111/ecog.00585

M3 - Journal article

VL - 38

SP - 221

EP - 230

JO - Ecography

JF - Ecography

SN - 0906-7590

IS - 3

ER -

ID: 132675708